Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone： Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt-中国期刊网

摘要 Althoughseismicgaptheoryplaysanimportantroleinthemed-andlong-termearthquakeprediction,thepotentialriskofthenon-seismicgapinhistoricalearthquakeruptureareaswillneedtobesimultaneouslytakenintoaccountinthestudyofmed-andlong-termearthquakeprediction,duetothetemporallyclusteringornon-linearbehavioroflargeearthquakerecurrence.Inordertoexploretechnicalmethodswhichcanbebasedonobservationaldata,andidentifyhistoricalearthquakerupturezones(includingtheseismicgapinhistoricalandprehistoricearthquakerupturezones),weselecteighthistoricallargeearthquakerupturezoneswithdifferentelapsedtimesonthemid-northsegmentoftheNorth-SouthSeismicBelttomakequantitativeanalysisonthecharacteristicsofmodernseismicityofthesezonesandpreliminarilyexploretheseismicitymethodfordeterminingtheurgencydegreeofpotentialearthquakehazards.Theresultsmainlyshowthatthepvalue,whichreflectstheattenuationofearthquakesequence,andthea-value,whichreflectstheseismicityrate,arestronglyrelatedtotheelapsedtimeofthelatestearthquakeintherupturezone.However,thecorrespondingrelationshipsinsomeruptureareasarenotclearperhapsduetothecomplexfaultstructureandfaultingbehavior.Theb-value,whichrepresentsthestateoftectonicstressaccumulation,doesnoteasilyreflecttheelapsedtimeinformationofdifferentevolutionstages.Theb-valuetemporalscanningshowsasteadyevolutionovertimeinmostoftherupturezones,butintherupturezoneoftheWuduM8.0earthquakeof1879,theb-valueshowssignificantfluctuationswithadecreasingtrendfor20years.Bycomparativeanalysis,weconcludethattherupturezonesofthe1933M7.5Maoxianearthquakeandthe1976M7.2Songpan-Pingwuearthquakearestillinthedecayingperiodofearthquakesequences,andthusdonothavethebackgroundforrecurrenceofM7.0earthquakes.Thelowb-valueMaqusegment,whichislocatedatthenorthmarginoftherupturezoneof

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Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone： Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

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Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone： Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

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