摘要
Usingequivalentblackbodytemperature(TBB)dataretrievedfrommeteorologicalsatelliteGMS-5during1996-2002,thecorrelationbetweenthecircularsymmetric/asymmetriccomponentofTBBandtheintensityoftropicalcyclone(TC)atvarioustimelagsfrom0to48hisanalyzedfortheNorthwestPacific(0°-50°N,120°-155°E),excludinglandedandnear-coastsamples.ItisfoundthatthetotalTBBnearsoutheastoftheeyewall,thecircularsymmetriccomponent,andthesumoftheamplitudesoftangentialwavenumbers1-10(SA10)oftheTBBbetweentheradiiof0.8°and1.7°aresignificantlyandnegativelycorrelatedwiththeTCintensityatvarioustimelagsfrom0to48h.Especially,themaximum24-hlagcorrelationcoefficientsreach-0.52,-0.58,and-0.625,respectively.AstatisticalpredictionschemeforTCintensityisdevelopedbasedonclimaticpersistent,synoptic,andTBBfactorsbystepwiseregressiontechnique.ItisfoundthatthevariancecontributionoftheaveragedTBBovertheringbetween1.0°and1.5°fromtheTCcenterranksthefourthintheequationfor12-hTCintensityprediction,andthoseofthetotalTBBnearsoutheastoftheeyewallandthedifferencebetweenmaximumandminimumTBBbetween1.1°and1.5°rankthethirdandfifthrespectivelyinthe24-hforecastequation.Itisalsoshownthat,withTBBfactors,thefollowingpredictionsareimprovedcomparedtotheschemewithoutTBBfactors:48-hpredictionforseveretropicalstorm(STS),12-hpredictionforTCwithaweakeningrategreaterthan15ms~(-1)/12h,24-hintensitypredictionforTCwithalmostnointensitychange,and48-hpredictionforTCintensifyingfasterthan10ms~(-1)/48h.
出版日期
2007年04月14日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
