THE SENSITIVITY INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL MODEL INITIAL VALUES ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL ASSIMILATION

摘要 NumericalexperimentsofadjointvariationalassimilationhavebeenperformedusingtheknownLorenzsystem.Withtheincreaseofsensitivityofmodel’sinitialvalues,itismoreandmoredifficulttousetheadjointmethodtogettheinitialvalueswhichareconsistentwiththedynamicsofthefore-castmodel.Undersomecircumstancesthealgorithmcompletelyfails.Thisshowsthatfour-dimen-sionalassimilationisrelatedtothelimitofpredictability.Ontheotherhand.withtheincreaseofmodelequation’serror,theresultofvariationalassimilationmaybecomeworseandworsesothatthepredictionhasnomeaning.Butifthemodelparametersarecorrectedwhenvariationalassimilationismade,theforecastresultscanbegreatlyimprovedbasedonLorenzmodel.

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THE SENSITIVITY INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL MODEL INITIAL VALUES ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL ASSIMILATION—STUDY BASED ON LORENZ SYSTEM

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THE SENSITIVITY INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL MODEL INITIAL VALUES ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL ASSIMILATION—STUDY BASED ON LORENZ SYSTEM

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