AIM:Toinvestigatethelifetimeriskofdevelopmentofesophagealadenocarcinomaand/orhigh-gradedysplasiainpatientsdiagnosedwithBarrett’sesophagus.METHODS:DatawereextractedfromtheUnitedKingdomNationalBarrett’sOesophagusRegistryondateofdiagnosis,patientageandgenderof7877patientsfromwhohadbeenregisteredfrom35UnitedKingdomcenters.LifeexpectancywasevaluatedfromUnitedKingdomNationalStatisticsdatabasedupongenderandageatyearatdiagnosis.Thesedatawerethenusedwithpublishedestimatesofannualadenocarcinomaandhigh-gradedysplasiaincidencesfrommetaanalysesandlargepopulation-basedstudiestoestimateoveralllifetimeriskofdevelopmentofthesestudyendpoints.RESULTS:ThemeanageatdiagnosisofBarrett’sesophaguswas61.6yearsinmalesand67.3yearsinfemales.Themeanlifeexpectancyatdiagnosiswas23.1yearsinmales,20.7yearsinfemalesand22.2yearsoverall.Usingdatafrompublishedmeta-analyses,thelifetimeriskofdevelopmentofadenocarcinomawasbetween1in8and1in14andthelifetimeriskofhigh-gradedysplasiaoradenocarcinomawas1in5to1in6.Usingdatafrom3largerecentpopulation-basedcohortstudiesthelifetimeriskofadenocarcinomawasbetween1in10and1in37andofthecombinedendpointofhigh-gradedysplasiaandadenocarcinomawasbetween1in8and1in20.AgeatBarrett’sesophagusdiagnosisisreducingandlifeexpectancyisincreasing,whichwillpartiallycounter-balancelowerannualcancerincidence.CONCLUSION:Thereisasignificantlifetimeriskofdevelopmentofhigh-gradedysplasiaandadenocarcinomainBarrett’sesophagus.
