简介：ＢｉｎｏｍｉａｌｍｏｄｅｌｏｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｒｉｓｋａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＪｉａｎＷＡＮＧ（王健）ａｎｄＺｈｅｎ－ＬｉａｎｇＳＨＩ（时振梁）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００...

简介：Theimpactofearthquakesinurbancenterspronetodisastrousearthquakesnecessitatestheanalysisofassociatedriskforrationalformulationofcontingencyplansandmitigationstrategies.Inurbancenters,theseismicriskisbestquantifiedandportrayedthroughthepreparationof'EarthquakeDamageandLossScenarios.'Thecomponentsofsuchscenariosaretheassessmentofthehazard,inventoriesandthevulnerabilitiesofelementsatrisk.ForthedevelopmentoftheearthquakeriskscenarioinIstanbul,twoindependentapproaches,onebasedonintensitiesandthesecondonspectraldisplacements,areutilized.Thispaperwillpresenttheimportantfeaturesofacomprehensivestudy,highlightthemethodology,discusstheresultsandprovideinsightstofuturedevelopments.

简介：Internationallyearthquakeinsurance,likeallotherinsurance(fire,auto),adoptedactuarialapproachinthepast,whichis,basedonhistoricallossexperiencetodetermineinsurancerate.Duetothefactthatearthquakeisarareeventwithsevereconsequence,irrationaldeterminationofpremiumrateandlackofunderstandingscaleofpotentiallossledtomanyinsurancecompaniesinsolventafterNorthridgeearthquakein1994.Alongwithrecentadvancesinearthscience,computerscienceandengineering,computerizedlossestimationmethodologiesbasedonfirstprincipleshavebeendevelopedtothepointthatlossesfromdestructiveearthquakescanbequantifiedwithreasonableaccuracyusingscientificmodelingtechniques.ThispaperintendstointroducehowengineeringmodelscanassisttoquantifyearthquakeriskandhowinsuranceindustrycanusethisinformationtomanagetheirriskintheUnitedStatesandabroad.

简介：Theprobabilityofearthquakeoccurrenceintheforthcoming50yearsintheareaconfinedbyLinfen,Taiyuan,andDaixianbasins,ShanxiProvinceiscomputedbyusingadualPoissonmodelandthefutureseismicriskisalsocomputedbyusingaprobabilitydistributionintegratedwiththeattenuationlaw.

简介：Basedonthesitehistoricalearthquakedata,amethodofseismicriskanalysisispresented.Oncethefrequencyofearthquakeresponseintensityandtherelativevalueshowedalogarithmiclinear,themaximumsimilaritymethodwouldbeusedtoobtainβ,λ,andImax,andalsoachievetheresultsofriskanalysisoneachsite.Atthesametime,the"logictree"methodcanbeusedtocalibratetheuncertaintyoftheriskoneachsite.Thenthefinalresultsofriskanalysisindicatethatthismethodisfeasible,particularlyforthesitesshowingintensityanomaly.

简介：ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｎｄｓｔｕｄｙｏｆｔｈｅｌａｒｇｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｒｉｓｋｉｎＹａｎｑｉｎｇＨｕａｉｌａｉｂａｓｉｎＣＨＡＮＧＱＵＡＮＬＩＵ（刘昌铨）ＳＨＩＸＵＪＩＡ（嘉世旭）ＭＩＮＧＪＵＮＬＩＵ（刘明军）ＣＨＡＮＧＦＡＬＩ（李长发...

简介：Morethanahalfofstrongearthquakesintheworldarelocatedinshallowdepthatthesubductingplateboundaryinsqueezedzones.Owingtothedifferenceinspeedbetweenthemovingseaplates,thestrainenergyisaccumulatedandreleasedcyclicallyinsqueezedzones.Severalmethodsweredevelopedtoanalyzethemedium-andshort-termpotentialofmainshocks.Thesemethodscanbeclassifiedinto(1)lessdatasystemsusingthetheoryofgreymodelforearthquakeprediction,(2)quasi-periodicsystemsusingearthquakeactivityanalysis,(3)systemsofgroupedactivityusingorderanalysis,and(4)nonlinearsystemsusingbackpropagation(BP)ofneuralnetworkforpredictionanalysis.Basedupontheseanalyticmethods,riskmapsforthepredictionofstrongearthquakescanbedrawnusingtherecordsofstrongearthquakesinTaiwanforthepast100years.Theseriskmapsinclude(1)aseismicriskmap,(2)alossriskmap,(3)ahazarddegreemap,and(4)alossdegreemap.Theseriskmapsmakeitpossibletodoamedium-termpredictionofmainshocksonthe10-yearscale.

简介：Usingthefourphases(1996-1999)orre-surveyingdatafromtheGPSnetworkalongtheShanxifaultzone,therecentstateofhorizontalmovementofthefaultzoneanditsrelationwiththeDatong-YanggaoM5.6earthquake(November1,1999),whichtookplaceonthenorthendofthemonitoredarea,areanalyzed.Inthefocalregion,threeareaswithrealativelyhigherstrain(1×10^-6)apearedinXinzhouandtothenortheastofJiexiu.TheShanxifaultzoneismainlycontrolledbytheWNW-ESE-trendingcompressivestressfieldandtheNNESSW-trendingtensilestressfield,anditdoesnothavestrike-slipmovement.Whenexaminedforlong-termtendency,attentionshouldbepaidtothejuncturesbetweenthethreemovingelements.

简介：Basedonpreviousresearchresults,present-daycrustaldeformationandgravityfieldsintheChinesemainlandareanalyzedusingtheGPSdata,leveling,gravityandcross-faultdeformations.Weanalyzedstrainaccumulationofthemajorfaults,andidentifiedlockedorhighstrainaccumulationsegments.Combiningtheeffectsoflargeearthquakesinthestudyarea,thelong-term(decade)probabilityoflargeearthquakesintheChinesemainlandisestimated.

简介：Earthquakedisasterrisk,asatypicalsocialdisasterrisk,isoneofthemostimportantrisksinmodernChinesesociety.Thisstudygivesdefinitionsoftheinstitution,describestheformationhistory,theconnotationsanddevelopmentandanalyzesitsroleinthecontrolofmajorsocialriskscausedbyearthquakes.Finally,thepaperpresentsrecommendationsforcontinuousimprovementofthisinstitutionundertheguidanceofrisksocietytheory,andforitsapplicationtothegovernmentreformandsocialgovernance.

简介：Thetectonicconditionsforstrongearthquakesarecomplicatedinvariousaspects.Thegeneticconditionsforstrongearthquakeswerestudiedfromtheangleofvariousdisciplines.About20conditionsbelongingtodifferentfieldshavebeendescribedbypredecessors.Inthispaper,theauthorstrytostudyandevaluateallthetectonicconditionfactorsforstrongearthquakesbythemethodsoffuzzymathematicsandhierarchicalanalysis.TakingthenorthernpartofNorthChinaasanexample,theauthorsmakeacomprehensivedigitalanalysisofallthequantitativeandsemi-quantitativetectonicfactors.Thecredibilityvaluesofallstrongearthquakeswithdifferentmagnitudesaregivenafterstatisticalanalysisandcalculation.Forty-onefaultzonesinthestudyregionarequantitativelyanalyzed,andthepotentialseismogenicfaultzones,maximummagnitude,andriskofearthquakeoccurrenceinthenearfutureareassessed.Theresultofsyntheticevaluation,basedonalltectonicconditionsofdifferentcategorie

简介：UsingthefocalmechanismsolutionsandslipdistributionmodeldataoftheTaiwanStraitsMS7.3earthquakeonSeptember16,1994,wecalculatethestaticCoulombstresschangesstemmingfromtheearthquake.Basedonthedistributionofaftershocksandstressfield,aswellasthelocationofhistoricalearthquakes,weanalyzetheCoulombstresschangetriggeredbytheTaiwanStraitsMS7.3earthquake.TheresultshowsthatthestaticCoulombstresschangeobtainedbyforwardmodelingbasedontheslipdistributionmodelisquiteconsistentwiththelocationofaftershocksintheareasfarawayfromtheepicenter.Ninetypercentofaftershocksoccurredinthestressincreasedareas.TheCoulombstresschangeisnotentirelyconsistentwiththedistributionofaftershocksneartheepicenter.ItisfoundthatCoulombstresschangecanbetterreflecttheaftershockdistributionfarawayfromtheepicenter,whilesuchcorrespondingrelationshipbecomesquitecomplexneartheepicenter.ThroughthecalculationoftheCoulombstresschange,wefindthatthestressincreasesinthesouthwestpartoftheMin-Yue(Fujian-Guangdong)coastalfaultzone,whichenhancestheseismicactivity.Therefore,itisdeemedthattheseaareabetweenNanpengIslandandDongshanIsland,wheretheMin-YuecoastalfaultzoneintersectswiththeNW-trendingShanghang-Dongshanfault,hasahighseismicrisk.

简介：Basedonthefittingonpaleoearthquakedataofintra-plateregionsinthenorthernpartofChi-naandgivingastatisticalmodeloftimeinterdependence,thepotentialdamageearthquakesinadefinitefutureperiodandcharacteristicsofpresentshocksalongtheLingwufaulthavebeenanalyzedbyusingdangerousprobabilityfunctionandsomenewdataconcerned.Wehavein-ferredthatthefaulthasenteredaperiodthatearthquakeswillprobablyoccur.ThereexistsapotentialdangerthatastrongearthquakewithMs7.0-7.5willoccurin10-100a.

简介：Althoughseismicgaptheoryplaysanimportantroleinthemed-andlong-termearthquakeprediction,thepotentialriskofthenon-seismicgapinhistoricalearthquakeruptureareaswillneedtobesimultaneouslytakenintoaccountinthestudyofmed-andlong-termearthquakeprediction,duetothetemporallyclusteringornon-linearbehavioroflargeearthquakerecurrence.Inordertoexploretechnicalmethodswhichcanbebasedonobservationaldata,andidentifyhistoricalearthquakerupturezones(includingtheseismicgapinhistoricalandprehistoricearthquakerupturezones),weselecteighthistoricallargeearthquakerupturezoneswithdifferentelapsedtimesonthemid-northsegmentoftheNorth-SouthSeismicBelttomakequantitativeanalysisonthecharacteristicsofmodernseismicityofthesezonesandpreliminarilyexploretheseismicitymethodfordeterminingtheurgencydegreeofpotentialearthquakehazards.Theresultsmainlyshowthatthepvalue,whichreflectstheattenuationofearthquakesequence,andthea-value,whichreflectstheseismicityrate,arestronglyrelatedtotheelapsedtimeofthelatestearthquakeintherupturezone.However,thecorrespondingrelationshipsinsomeruptureareasarenotclearperhapsduetothecomplexfaultstructureandfaultingbehavior.Theb-value,whichrepresentsthestateoftectonicstressaccumulation,doesnoteasilyreflecttheelapsedtimeinformationofdifferentevolutionstages.Theb-valuetemporalscanningshowsasteadyevolutionovertimeinmostoftherupturezones,butintherupturezoneoftheWuduM8.0earthquakeof1879,theb-valueshowssignificantfluctuationswithadecreasingtrendfor20years.Bycomparativeanalysis,weconcludethattherupturezonesofthe1933M7.5Maoxianearthquakeandthe1976M7.2Songpan-Pingwuearthquakearestillinthedecayingperiodofearthquakesequences,andthusdonothavethebackgroundforrecurrenceofM7.0earthquakes.Thelowb-valueMaqusegment,whichislocatedatthenorthmarginoftherupturezoneof

简介：TakingthesouthernpartoftheShanxiProvinceandthewesternpartoftheSichuanProvinceastheexamples,theseismicityparametersofeverypotentialseismiczonehavebeendeterminedbythemaximumlikelihoodmodelwithdifferentdatabasedondifferentmagnitudethresholds,dependingonthedifferentprecisionofdifferentearthquakecatalogs.Accordingtothegeneralseismicriskanalysismodel,theseismicintensityzoningfortwoareashasbeenobtained.

简介：Theseismotectonicmethodisusedtostudytheseismogenicstructuresandthemaximumpotentialearthquakearoundanengineeringsiteinordertodeterminetheseismicriskatthesite.Analysisofseismicriskfromsiteeffectseismicintensitydata,incombinationwithregionalseismo-geologicaldata,usingtheseismotectonicmethodcanprovideamorereliableresult.Inthispaper,takingtheareaofsixreservoirdamsitesinwesternAnhuiasanexample,weanalyzetheseismicriskfromsiteeffectseismicintensitydataincombinationwiththeseismotectonicconditionsandfindthatP(I≥i)=10%over50years.Theresultshowsthattheseismogenicstructureandthemaximumpotentialearthquakehaveacontrollingeffectonseismicriskfromfutureearthquakesintheareaaroundthesite.